Will Stancil

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About

Will Stancil is a left-leaning American political commentator known for his frequent engagement with journalists, politicians and others on X / Twitter. Stancil has been at the center of several online policy arguments, notably the Vibecession discourse, and is known for taking contrarian points. He is a notable theorist of "vibes" in politics.

Career

Stancil is a lawyer living in Minnesota who does "metro policy research" at the University of Minnesota.^[1] His work has been published in outlets like The Atlantic and The Minnesota Reformer. However, Stancil is most well-known for his presence on Twitter / X, where his takes on policy and arguments with others have placed him in a central position among political commentators. In the December 12th, 2023 X post, seen below left, which received over 2,100 likes in two days, Stancil described his stance and philosophy as a power poster.^[2] In the post seen below right, writer John Ganz describes Stancil's reputation on journalism and liberal policy Twitter, earning over 700 likes in a day on December 13th, 2023.^[4]

Vibes Theory

Stancil's theory of Vibes, central to his political and posting outlook, was sketched out in a November 2021 post on his Substack Stancil Culture, which goes as follows:

Most fundamentally, “vibes” is the idea that politics is rooted in and governed by mass psychology, which makes political behavior intrinsically difficult (and sometimes impossible) to model as a series of quantifiable inputs and predictable outputs, the approach favored by econometrically-inclined disciplines.^[3]

Stancil believes that in the modern era, media narratives and framings are actually more influential on public opinion than the facts of the economic or political situation. This has placed him at odds with economists and other very-online commentators like Nate Silver or Matthew Yglesias, who focus on policy and statistics. According to Stancil's thinking, it is "vibes" transmitted through "media signals" which matter much more than what's really happening on the ground. This is because most people are not directly aware of much beyond their immediate social circle, and abstractions like "the economy" or "politics" exist only as things represented in mass media.

Stancil's "vibes" position and his support of Joe Biden has attracted considerable criticism and controversy, with Stancil engaging in heated arguments online.

Online History

Stancil joined Twitter in June of 2009, an early user.^[5] Throughout the 2010s and 2020s, he posted frequently about policy topics. In the fall of 2023, as the vibescession discourse took off, Stancil became involved in an increasingly intricate series of beefs. It started with him espousing the vibecession, amid pushback from leftists who believed that he was endorsing the status quo. The dispute then escalated into high profile confrontations with presidential candidate Marianne Williamson (seen below left)^[7] and pundit Nate Silver (seen below right).^[8] In particular, Stancil's dispute with Silver attracted attention and headlines, including retweets from figures like New York Times columnist Ross Douthat.

Stancil's prominence on X led many to wonder about his background and habits. User @ExileGrimm posted about Stancil's discussion of being active on Something Awful in his youth (Stancil told Know Your Meme he was never a libertarian, however) earning nearly 5,000 likes on December 11th for describing this information as the missing piece in understanding Stancil.^[6] On November 28th, 2023, Stancil was doxxed by someone working at a bar where he reportedly ordered a hot dog and fries and ate them alone (seen below right).^[7]

Vibecession

Vibecession, also spelled Vibe Cession, is a slang term and economics concept coined by content creator Kyla Scanlon to describe attitudes around the American economy in 2023. According to Scanlon and others, the "vibe cession" consists of widespread gloom and negative sentiment about the economy despite most indicators showing that the economy is improving. The vibecession sparked viral debates on X / Twitter, TikTok and other platforms in late 2023 as posters argued about whether the economy actually was doing well or if it was even real.