Lindy / Lindy Effect

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About

The Lindy Effect refers to a slang term popularized by statistician and writer Nassim Taleb and technology lawyer and Twitter personality Paul Skallas. The term originates from a forecasting theory which posits that if something has been around for a while, it will likely be around longer. The term gained renewed interest in corporate and technology communities after 2018 due to the theory's application in technology and trend forecasting, and with Skallas, in particular, taking credit for revitalizing "Lindy" as a lifestyle choice for corporate workers. Skallas also takes credit for the phrase "4 Hour Life," a neologism for the amount of personal time left in the life of an average corporate worker.

Origin

The earliest mention of the term "Lindy" as a way to predict the longevity of an idea was presented by Albert Goldman in an article titled "Lindy's Law," named after Lindy's delicatessen in New York. Goldman theorized that the amount of comedic material available to a comic is limited, therefore, the comedian's lasting potential hinges on how well he conserves his ideas and media appearances to ensure longevity in the industry.^[1] In 1982, Benoit Mandelbrot reworked Goldman's theory to posit that the more appearances a comedian makes, the more future appearances they are predicted to make.

In 2007, essayist and mathematical statistician Nassim Taleb discussed Mandelbrot's ideas, using the phrase "the Lindy Effect" for the first time in his 2012 book Antifragile: Things That Gain From Disorder. Taleb uses the example of books to explain the Lindy Effect, describing the notion that a book is likely to stay in print for 40 years if it has already been in print for 40 years. He said:

Every year that passes without extinction doubles the additional life expectancy. This is an indicator of some robustness. The robustness of an item is proportional to its life! ^[2] On January 9th, 2017, Taleb wrote a Medium article in defense of the Lindy Effect, titled, "An Expert Called Lindy."^[11]

On July 27th, 2018, the Twitter^[3] account of "LindyMan" @PaulSkallas posted its first notable tweet discussing a Lindy issue. The tweet read, "A friend of mine is a professor of lit at a small midwestern university. I asked him about the decline of humanities enrollment. His response was interesting. Lindy may save the Classics. Tie this field to survival, an understanding of human nature that replaces psychology." (seen below, top). The tweet contained a reply showing a Facebook^[4] post made by Nassim Taleb where he said "By the Lindy Effect, you should know 20 times more about the history of the past 2000 years than that of the past 100 years" (seen below, bottom).

Spread

Over the consecutive months, Skallas went on to opine on what ideas and practices were Lindy or Lindy compatible. These judgments seem to be derived from wisdom divined from who Skallas calls "the ancients." On August 8th, 2018, @PaulSkallas posted a tweet^[5] that read, "Two great books to learn how people actually lived in ancient society. Don't study kings or royalty bs. Study real people to see how behavior and lifestyle is Lindy compatible" (seen below, left). On September 24th, 2019, he posted a meme^[6] about everyone needing a "lindy life coach" (seen below, right).

In 2020, Skallas also began to advocate for what he called "Lindy Walks," the practice of simply taking a walk every day. He defended this habit against increased restrictions on going outside one's home during the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. On March 16th, 2020, Skallas tweeted, "You won't stop the LindyMan from going outside and taking his lindy walks unless a soldier from the military points a gun in his face / allah akbar."^[7] On March 28th, 2020, Twitter user @techceopepe posted a tweet that read, "Has one person who takes Lindy Walks gotten sick yet?"^[8] (seen below, right).

On February 29th, 2020, Skallas published a Medium^[10] article titled, "4 Hour Life Glossary" (seen below, left). On June 17th, 2021, Skallas was featured in a New York Times article^[12] in which he discussed his various theories about how one can live a life by lindy principles. He posted a tweet^[9] regarding the same on June 17th, gathering over 4,000 likes in roughly a year (seen below, right). The article covered his concept of the 4HL, which was outlined in the aforementioned Medium.

On June 17th, 2021, Twitter^[13] user @sentantiq posted a tweet accusing Paul Skallas of stealing their translations of classical texts without giving due credit, gathering over 100 likes in over a year (seen below, left). The replies to the tweet also show Dr. Taleb's^[14] indignation at thinking he was mistaken for Skallas (seen below, right).