American-Iranian War (2026)

Submission 39,831

WIP. Events Unfolding
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The American-Iranian War refers to an armed conflict between the US and Iran, with the initial involvement of Israel, beginning in the year 20261. It was started with the ostensible goal of aiding the protestors, and to overthrow the theocratic Islamic Republic of Iran.

The Gulf States such as Kuwait, Qatar, United Arab Emraites, Bahrain, Oman, and Saudi Arabia, joined the conflict on the side of the US an Israel, because of Iranian reprisal attacks on them. The American-Iranian war commensed possibly in response to violent Iranian reactions to Late 2025 mass protests, its support for Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and aiding Hama's October 7th attack on Israel. Trump claims its part an intended four week long Operation called "Epic Fury".

Background

Origin

In late 2025, by around December the 28th, protests and rioting were reported to have broken out in cities and provinces in western parts of Iran, such as in Hamadan and Ilam, and reaching into Tehran.^[5]
Initially, the protests were likely in reaction to a water crisis in Iran that was ongoing, the extreme inflation of the Iranian Rial, and a shortage of goods due to sanctions imposed since 2018.^[2]^[3]^[4]
This unrest quickly became focused on general national dissatisfaction with the Revolutionary Government and the Ayatollah ^[6]. As these protests intensified and spread throughout the country, The Islamic Republic responded to these incidents harshly, arresting and detaining nearly a couple thousand people while about 30 participants were claimed to be killed ^[7]. The number of participants killed rose to at least 51 people by December 31, according to the Los Angeles Times ^[8].

On January 8th, 2026, all internet access in Iran was suspended. In the days following the nationwide shutdown of online communications, mass killings were ordered by the Iranian government and carried out by the IRGC against the protestors^[12]. By January 17th, The total number of Iranian deaths was said to be roughly 30,000 people^[13]. Though the Islamic Republic government of Iran would publicly admit, through Reuters and the BBC, to ~3000 persons being killed, blaming "the US president criminal for the casualties, damages and slander he inflicted on the Iranian nation." ^[14]^[15] .
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President Donald Trump had earlier told media that he wouldn't tolerate Iranian government's violence crackdown on the protests ^[8]. In a Truth Social post on January 13th, he encouraged the people of Iran, or "Iranian Patriots", to "KEEP PROTESTING – TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!! Save the names of the killers and abusers." while promising that "HELP IS ON ITS WAY."^[10]^[11].

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US Carrier strike groups and other military assets had begun to be moved to locations in and around Israel and the Gulf states, starting by mid-January [ citation needed] . For example, by CNN
[ citation needed ] and USNI News [ citation needed ] , The Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group was called from its location in the Indian Ocean to be positioned in the Arab Sea, while the Gerald Ford Carrier Strike Group was relocated to the Red Sea. Aircraft and other hardware and personnel were transported to Air bases in Greece, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, UAE, and the Chagos Islands (UK).

On February 7th, 2026, according to Reuters and Al Jazeera[ citation needed ] , The US and Iran had opened official negotiations in Geneva, mediated by Oman and Turkey, with the goal of discussing Iran's ability to possess nuclear weapons and material and its use of ballistic missiles. With US negotiators urging for Iran to abandon all its nuclear projects, and Iran's negotiators continuing to advocate for Iran's right to enrich uranium and maintain a stockpile. These diplomatic talks carried on until the end of February. It was initially assumed, by US Press and others [ citations needed ] , that the reasons for the presence of the carrier strike groups and Air Force assets was to pressure Iran to accept US diplomatic conditions.
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Initial Events

On Febuary 28, 2026, at 2 AM EST, the United States and Israel had launched pre-emptive strikes on Iran [ citation needed ]. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the initial strikes ^[17], along with a few other members of the Iranian Revolutionary government, and IRGC citation needed. This was not announced and was at first denied by Tehran, which had announced an upcoming speech from the Supreme Leader later that day ^[16] . However, the speech never occurred. He was confirmed to be dead by Iranian state media [ citation needed ] on March 1st, 2026. An interim government, consisting of Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, President Masoud Pezeshkian, and Iranian Chief Justice Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei was established [ citation needed ] until a new Supreme Leader could be selected by the 88 members of the Assembly of Experts {Al Jazeera}.

On March 2nd, Trump announced his official aims for the war, which included the destruction of Iranian missile capacity, the elimination of the Iranian Navy, completely denying Iran access to nuclear weapons, as well as retaliation and prevention for Iran's support of terrorist groups and proxy forces [ citation needed ].

Notable Events

Minab School Strike

The Shajareh Tayyebeh girls' elementary school all girls school in Minab, Iran was among other casualties in the opening attacks of the war. It was destroyed in the missile strikes ^[18] which were meant to for IRGC military bases and facilities. About 180 people were killed, the great majority of the dead being the children of that school. A mass funeral was held for the victims on March 3rd of 2026, and aerial photos of the many graves were circulated online and in the press [ citations needed ].

Iranian government officials and state media blamed US and Israeli air raids for these deaths [ citation needed ]. President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that[ citation needed ], "American and Zionist aggression against Minab Elementary School will never be erased from the historical memory of our nation."

The Iranian ambassador to the UN brought the incident to the attention of the UN and its High Commissioner for Human Rights [ citation needed ], as a case of a war crime.

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Proponents of the war, including President Donald Trump, Secretary Pete Hegseth, the IDF, dissidents of the Islamic Republic Government, and monarchist supporters of Reza Pahvli, first denied [ citation needed ] accusations that the all-girls elementary school was targeted and struck by US-Israeli forces. Instead, speculating that malfunctioning Iranian missiles had hit the school and killed many of its students.

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Later investigations by the UN [ citation needed ], CBC [ citation needed ] , NPR [ citation needed ], and the Pentagon[ citation needed ] confirmed that American missiles had destroyed the school. This was determined by the fact that Minab was within the US's area of operation and other US airstrikes had been executed in the region. Tomahawk missile parts were also discovered in the rubble of the school by the Iranians.

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The Pentagon placed fault for the bombing of the school on the use of AI [ citation needed ] as a means of developing targets, as well as badly collected and old intelligence, leading to the school being struck. It was noted that the elementary school was 200 feet away from a wider IRGC base, which was the intended target.

Blocking of the Strait of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz was declared closed on March 5th, by the IRGC and Iranian Secretary of Security Ali Larijani [ citation needed ] . Iran threatened, and gave rise to fears of, Crude Oil prices of $200 a barrel [ citation needed ] . While gas prices had escalated since the beginning of the conflict [ citation needed ], such prices have yet to materialize [ citation needed ]. Iran's blockade strategy in the Hormuz Strait aims to increase the cost of petrol [ citation needed ], in order to wear down US willingness to continue its campaign [ citation needed ], discourage Iran's Gulf State rivals from cooperating in the war [ citation needed ], and increase international pressure against the US. Iran's policy towards the sea lane kept exceptions for Chinese Oil tankers and later for Indian tankers [ citation needed ].
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By March 13th, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi claimed that the strait was open to all countries, except the US
[ citation needed ].

Elevation of Mojtaba Khamenei

Favored by the IRGC [ citation needed ], with at least 8 members of the Assembly of Experts in disageement.
A picture frame was pledged to on the day of his inauguration.
Iranian state media read out his written statement [ citation needed ].
Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini used to deliver audio recordings, and Mojtaba apparently cannot.
Israeli intelligence, Secretary Hegseth and others [ citation needed ] suggested he might be heavily injured, or in a coma, and incapable of executing his role if he's aware he's been given the position.
Larijan and Masoud Pezeshkian were seen Friday in the streets of Tehran [ citation needed ] and with crowds for Al Quds day in Iran, yet Mojtaba Khamenei remained missing.

Attacks on Kharg Island

On March 13th of 2026, attacks were ordered on Kharg Island [ citation needed ], in possible preparation for a US forces establishing itself in that area. The US had also commanded ~2500 Marines to be sent to take part an operation to capture the island [ citation needed ]. Kharg Island is considered to be a vital location to Iran's overall oil production and transportation infrastructure.